ORLANDO, Fla. – An area of low pressure could develop tropical characteristics over the weekend in the western Caribbean.
Gradual development will then be possible as the system moves to the north.
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It is too early to tell, however, whether the area will impact Florida, but tropical development appears likely with the eventual disturbance.
Model guidance suggests those along the northern and eastern Gulf coast should monitor the progress of this system as it lifts out of the Caribbean sea next week.
The latest European ensembles, a tool used by forecasters when not much data is present, shows the storm lifting north with the potential to move north, east or west once it enters the Gulf of Mexico. It will all depend on how the steering current evolves once the system develops.
Each line, or “L,” represents the individual member’s solution.
The National Hurricane Center currently gives this entity a 20% chance for development over the next seven days.
If Florida were to be impacted by the system, it would be during the mid-to-latter portion of next week.
While tropical development appears likely in the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week, the strength and potential track will be highly uncertain until a storm actually forms.
Even though it has been quiet of late, the peak of hurricane season continues. Now is a good time to make sure your hurricane kit is stocked in case a storm threatens Florida at any point during the remainder of the season.
The next named storm of the 2024 hurricane season is Helene. Hurricane season runs through November.