ORLANDO, Fla. – On Friday, the National Hurricane Center designated the area of disturbed weather in the southwestern Gulf as Invest 92L, which allows for more targeted weather forecasting.
As of 8 a.m. Saturday, the National Hurricane Center has increased the chances of tropical formation in the Gulf to 70% over the next two days and 90% over the next seven days. A tropical depression is expected to form this weekend, and a tropical storm early this week. Milton is next on the list.
The area in the Gulf most likely for development is highlighted in red on the map below.
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Based on the latest forecasts, Southwest Florida may be directly affected.
As the weekend progresses, forecast models do show it organizing into a storm and moving toward Florida. Key factors will include land interaction, wind shear in the northern Gulf, interaction with a cold front and the location of low pressure in the Gulf, all of which will affect the system’s strength.
At this early stage, we can’t rule out the possibility of the system becoming a hurricane. Residents should prepare for potential flooding early next week while details on wind or surge threats become available soon.
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With Saturday’s forecast expected to be overall quiet, it’s a good time to clear drains, clean gutters and fill sandbags if necessary based on your risk level.
If current forecast trends hold, a system could organize in the Gulf by Monday, giving residents limited time to prepare for potential impacts.
According the GFS forecast, many areas could see 4 to 6 inches of rain over the next week.
The EURO models suggests 4 to 8+ inches. The chances of heavy tropical rainfall are rising, and the risk of flooding may increase in the next few days
Aside from the Gulf system, two named storms, Kirk and Leslie, are in the eastern Atlantic, but they pose no threat to the U.S.
Kirk is moving north-northwest and is expected to weaken over the next few days due to moving over cooler waters.
Leslie, located southeast of Kirk, continues to track west-northwest over the open Atlantic holding onto its Category 1 strength through the next several days.
Another wave is expected to move off the coast of Africa in the next few days, with a low chance of tropical development in the next two to seven days.
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