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Tracking Hurricane Milton: Cone, models, more as storm rapidly intensifies on path to Florida

Milton now Category 3 hurricane in Gulf

ORLANDO, Fla.Hurricane Milton continues to strengthen Monday and is expected to rapidly intensify before striking the Florida Gulf Coast later this week.

Milton will be moving into a region in the Gulf primed for rapid development of Milton by Tuesday.

As of 7 a.m., Milton is a Category 3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds near 120 mph. A hurricane is considered a major hurricane when it reaches Category 3 status.

[RELATED: Sandbag locations | School, university closures | Tropical terms to know | Watches vs. Warnings ]

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The storm is moving east-southeast at 8 mph and is about 750 miles away from Tampa.

Forecast cone continues to encompass all of Central Florida. This means the center of Milton can track as far north as Gainesville to as south as West Palm Beach.

Models show a combination of wind shear and some drier air impacting Milton before landfall, which will aid in weakening the storm slightly.

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There are some fluctuations with local impacts depending on where Milton finally tracks.

Model comparisons for Milton (Copyright 2024 by WKMG ClickOrlando - All rights reserved.)

Scenario #1:

The European models show a landfall Wednesday evening, slightly south of Tampa. This scenario would put Central Florida in the zone for the heaviest rainfall. This is why models show rain totals in the double digits for a big swath of Central Florida.

Scenario #2:

The GFS model shows a later landfall slightly north of Tampa. This would keep Central Florida under the dirty (right) side of the storm, increasing the chance for strong storms with the potential for tornado warned cells.

Rain model comparisons for Milton (Copyright 2024 by WKMG ClickOrlando - All rights reserved.)

Regardless of the track, Central Floridians need to be prepared for hurricane conditions by Wednesday through Thursday.

Make sure you are taking the threat seriously by getting your hurricane preps completed by Tuesday.

A hurricane watch has been issued for Sumter and Polk counties. More watches/warnings will be issued in Central Florida as the storm approaches the Gulf Coast.

Milton fact breakdown (Copyright 2024 by WKMG ClickOrlando - All rights reserved.)

Central Florida counties have opened sandbag locations through the beginning of this week to prep for the storm. Click here to see the full list.

School districts and universities in the area have also announced school closures ahead of Milton. Click here to see responses and updates.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has declared a state of emergency for 51 counties ahead of Milton’s anticipated Gulf Coast landfall.

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About the Authors
Brenda Argueta headshot

Brenda Argueta is a digital journalist who joined ClickOrlando.com in March 2021. She is the author of the Central Florida Happenings newsletter that goes out every Thursday.

Candace Campos headshot

Candace Campos joined the News 6 weather team in 2015.

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