ORLANDO, Fla. – As of the latest Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigation Rafael is now a hurricane with 75 mph sustained winds and a minimum central pressure of 986mb.
As of Tuesday night, Rafael is about 20 miles southeast of Little Cayman and 305 miles south-southeast of Havana Cuba according to the NHC.
The National Hurricane Center said “steady to rapid intensification” is forecast over the next 24 hours as the system moves over the Cayman Islands and then continuing to intensify before reaching western Cuba.
Models continue to show Rafael maintaining hurricane intensity entering the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday, tracking well west of Florida. The lower to middle Florida Keys however are likely to experience Tropical Storm conditions Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Based on the latest track, aside from the Keys mentioned above, the main impact to Florida will be added tropical moisture bringing pockets of heavy rain and a few isolated thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday.
Rain and storm chances by then increase to 40% with areas west of I-4 seeing slightly higher rain chances closer to 50% to 60%. Highs stay steady in the mid 80s.
It is still too soon to determine what, if any, impacts Rafael could bring to portions of the northern Gulf coast as the system is forecast to encounter increasing vertical wind shear, dry air entrainment, and slightly cooler sea surface temperatures. Regardless, Rafael remains a system that will continue to be monitored.
By the end of the week, expect our winds to finally die down with slightly drier air working back into the area for Friday and Saturday (coverage 20%-30%).
This drier trend won’t last long though. An area highlighted with a low chance of tropical development as another possible surge of tropical moisture arrives later in the weekend.