ORLANDO, Fla. – The National Hurricane Center is closely monitoring an area in the central Caribbean, Invest 99L, which has a high chance of development over the next few days.
Many computer models keep it in the Caribbean through the weekend as it strengthens into our next named storm, Sara.
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A cold front to our north will give “soon-to-be Sara” a lift into the Gulf by early next week.
While it is still too early to pinpoint exact timing, track and intensity, there are a two main routes this system could take over the next few days.
Scenario #1:
This route takes the system over Central America and the Yucatan peninsula through the weekend. This added interaction with land could keep intensity down as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico ahead of the approaching cold front. This route favors a weaker storm approaching Florida by middle of next week.
Scenario #2:
This route keeps the system over the very warm western Caribbean waters through the weekend. This increases the likelihood of a stronger storm emerging into the Gulf as it approaches Florida by middle of next week.
Invest 99L, which was designated on Tuesday by the NHC, has a 90% chance of development in the next two days. A tropical depression is expected to form in the next couple of days as it moves west into the western Caribbean.
Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate the system later Wednesday.
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While intensity and timing remains a bit uncertain, interaction with Florida is possible. If that is the case, it would be during the early-to-middle portion of next week, around Nov. 20, give or take.
Even though it is mid-November, it is still hurricane season and we can’t let our guard down just yet.
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