ORLANDO, Fla. – Winter is FAST approaching!
The cold weather is already beginning to settle in, not only for Central Florida, across a large majority of the United States.
We just wrapped a chaotic and destructive hurricane season.
But what do both seasonal phases have in common?
They’re very heavily dictated by our ENSO, or whether we be in an El Niño or a La Niña.
Why does it matter to you?
For us in Florida, a lot of the natives don’t really like cold weather. A nice break from what feels like record-setting heat and astronomical amounts of humidity is welcome from time to time. But naturally, a lot of Floridians still want to be able to enjoy their time outdoors, at the beach, dining outside, hiking, you name it.
There are also lots of us who enjoy the colder temperatures, especially surrounding the holiday season. Thanksgiving Day was fairly on the warm side, but immediately following we had another dome of polar air crash across the state like a tidal wave.
So how does this all play into your general winter outlook over the next few months? Let’s dive a bit into the science.
Despite ENSO (the El Niño Southern Oscillation) being dictated strictly by ocean temperatures across the Pacific closest to the equator, it plays a vital role on the weather on a GLOBAL scale. What occurs in the Pacific Ocean can affect us here in Florida, folks up in Canada, those who may be watching a stream or a video of ours all the way into Europe, Africa, even as far north as Siberia.
The El Niño Southern Oscillation impacts and influences cold and warm temperatures across the northern hemisphere particularly. It does so by changing the trajectory of certain jet streams, air masses and what are called “semi-permanent” pressure centers. Semi-permanent, meaning a low or high pressure will exist in that same general spot almost year-round, pending maybe a weakening or strengthening phase from time to time.
Why does what happens in Siberia or Africa or anywhere else in the world matter to us here in Florida?
All weather behaves in cycles or waves. The pattern over Asia one day will inevitably bleed into the pattern across North America. The jet streams across the hemisphere are continuous as well, they’re never-ending as they loop across the upper latitudes of Earth.
Kind of reminds you of the phrase, “What goes around comes around.”
This is the part where ENSO comes in. During an El Niño winter, which we had the “pleasure” of experiencing last winter season, brings about intense conditions for us in the Southeast. During an El Niño, one of our main branches of the jet, the subtropical piece, gets stronger. It also dips way south, and moves across much of Northern Mexico, the southern plains and the Southeast United States.
The jet helps breed storm systems, areas of low pressure that help drag different temperatures and air around the country. This is why we had several bouts of powerful storms, severe weather and tornado outbreaks for north Florida.
Slowly but surely transitioning into a La Niña doesn’t entirely rule this out. But it does make a fairly big difference going forward. Instead of clouds, rain and cooler temps, we could see longer periods of dry air, clearer skies and, inevitably, drought.
One of the biggest pieces in the short term is the drought factor. We should be prepared for dry spells to avoid running low on water (despite what hurricane season provided for us), and the loss of gardens, vegetation and our lawns.
The slow push into a La Niña won’t stick around either. In fact, as weird as this is to say, we’ll likely rebound out of La Niña back into a bit more of a neutral pattern just in time for the hurricane season of 2025. More to come on that down the road.
