This time last year, Floridians were battling bouts of strong storms, damaging winds, and tornadoes. That was all thanks to our El Nino pattern wreaking havoc on the deep south, Dixie Alley. The bleed-over naturally caused some chaos for us in north and central Florida during January and February.
As we get closer to the arrival of winter, the exact opposite could occur this time around.
The La Nina and El Nino patterns are dictated by our ENSO regions in the equatorial Pacific. There are four individual regions that meteorologists and oceanographers monitor annually to determine what sort of atmospheric effects could be present.
We saw a strong El Nino bubbling over in the Pacific from 2023 into 2024, which translated to strong low-pressure systems pummeling the southern United States. These were our severe weather producers which led to numerous outbreaks not only in Florida but across much of the Plains, the Mid-West and the Mid-Atlantic.
For 2024 into 2025, as the Pacific waters remain cool, Florida likely won’t see as significant of weather.
It boils down to our jet streams. The subtropical jet, the polar front jet and the arctic jet are some of the large-scale staples that drive what weather we feel down at ground level year-round. In our El Nino setup, the subtropical jet was quite literally ripping through the south, spitting out strong weather producers and low-pressure systems carrying energy and moisture capable of dropping tornadoes.
In La Nina, that jet will be nearly nonexistent during this time of year. The polar front jet becomes the dominant player and resides mainly over the central and upper-tier United States.
Because of this lack of jet stream energy across our area, means we won’t have the influence or “nudge” necessary to bring in plentiful moisture or lift to get rain and storms going.
Just about every climate model available at our disposal indicates below-average rainfall for much of December, January and February. This could result in a pretty hefty drought establishing itself despite the rainfall Debbie, Helene, Milton and the traditional Florida rainy season provided during the summer and early fall.
Fire weather becomes the primary threat for Floridians. With La Nina, you won’t typically have long-duration cold outbreaks. Florida will see a lot of what we’ve already witnessed working through November. A small period of frigid temps before a quick rebound back to average. The fronts will also carry with them less punch, so we likely won’t receive healthy doses of rainfall with each passing feature.
As of today, according to the United States Drought Monitor, the areas previously affected by hurricanes Debbie and Helene are already realizing a moderate drought. As winter carries on, these conditions will only be exacerbated by a lack of consistent rainfall.
We’ll need to double down our efforts of conserving water as needed, especially in between these cooler periods. Take great care in providing your lawn and garden at home with the necessary nutrients, resources, and recommended watering schedule provided by your own sprinkler or irrigation systems. We also have to step up our fire prevention methods.
Lit cigarettes should be fully extinguished, watch out for those New Years fireworks especially if your area has browned over or the vegetation is severely dry by that point in time. Check your cars and other automotive devices for anything that could create a spark. A faulty ground, a bad wire, rats chewing under carriage cables. Just as you would for hurricane season, perhaps give your shrubbery, trees and bushes an extra trim as we go through the winter season.
We could see a small dousing with the approach of our next strong push of cold air, and maybe some severe weather for the southeast U.S. How much of the rain makes it down here, is still to be determined.
