ORLANDO, Fla. – The forecast has been going downhill for many, especially for our neighbors in the Gulf Coast states. The Storm Prediction Center has upped its forecast for severe weather to a level four out of five, which essentially spells out an outbreak of all sorts of serious weather conditions is imminent.
Now, this is textbook for the winter season. Data supports the working theory there are usually two distinct parts of the year where the Plains and the Deep South experience an uptick in tornadoes or general severe weather. The kicker here is how much will make it into Central Florida. Let’s break down the data together.
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We currently have two branches, if you will, of the jet stream digging south toward Florida across the remainder of the United States. The polar front jet extends south out of Canada, while a second jet stream, the Subtropical Jet, comes ripping out of the west across the Gulf of Mexico. This is what starts stirring the pot in terms of forming some sporty weather.
From there, our temperatures have been going up alongside the humidity. I’m sure when you’ve stepped outside recently, regardless of the time of day, you could just feel the air sitting on you. When I left home today, I could almost taste how much of that humidity was around me. That’s a signal rain chances are going to climb once we receive a trigger to spark them.
That’s where our cold front comes in. The jets support this front down in the lowest portions of our atmosphere, and that’s what will help instigate the start of showers and storms that could go severe once they interact with all the warm, moist air still blanketing us.
Our in-house forecast model does show there’s a greater chance, if the timing is right, that some of these showers and storms could extend further south closer to the Orlando metro area. Timing looks to be anywhere between 11 a.m. to 4 p.m. in the afternoon for our highest window of opportunity for some storms to try and get going.
However, if you reside in Marion, Putnam or Flagler counties, you should really keep your eyes and ears peeled for updates as we go through the day tomorrow.
Everyone in Central Florida will likely have a shot at some much-needed rain and we’ll continue to work feverishly dialing-in how much of a moderate or greater risk for some significant weather is evident for our neighborhood.
As we approach New Year’s Eve however, we’re clearing out! We’ll also dry out some too after this event blows over, quite literally.
So if you don’t like frigid temps, you’re in for a pleasant surprise as we rock into the new year with mild temps, mid to upper 70s during the warmest parts of our afternoon and upper 50s overnight. Our rain chances will start to creep back up as yet another cold front tries to come across the Florida peninsula into the first Wednesday and Thursday of 2025.
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