ORLANDO, Fla. – Two words: El Niño.
You’ve likely of heard it. It’s been the topic of the summer.
It’s played a huge role in keeping the Atlantic tame this hurricane season, but may have an even bigger impact on the Sunshine State this winter.
There is a strong correlation between a strong El Niño and the weather during the cooler months in Florida.
Long story short, during an El Niño winter, a very active storm track sets up across the Gulf.
This tends to bring more clouds, rain and an elevated threat for severe weather to Florida.
This El Niño could rival the strongest on record, which historically ramps up the severe weather threat.
While the threat for severe weather, including tornadoes, will be elevated from late fall to early spring, it appears to be greatest in December and February.
Wind shear tends to be much stronger during an El Niño, enhancing the threat for strong storms and tornadoes.
Tropical systems hate wind shear, but severe storms need it to organize and become strong.
Here’s a monthly look at how the winter of 2026-2027 could play out.
Outlook
The winter of 2026-2027 will likely feature wet and cloudy weather more often than not. The temperature outlook is harder to pin down as wild temperature swings will be likely, although the winter as a whole may end up below average, especially the second half.
The below average portion would come from cooler afternoons rather the deep freezes like last winter.
Here’s a monthly look at how the winter of 2026-2027 could play out.
The table below showcases the average precipitation across the 5 Central Florida climate sites.
| Nov. | Dec. | Jan. | Feb. | March | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orlando | 1.79 | 2.48 | 2.48 | 2.04 | 3.03 |
| Melbourne | 2.55 | 2.36 | 2.63 | 1.98 | 2.69 |
| Daytona Beach | 2.76 | 2.34 | 2.73 | 2.34 | 3.63 |
| Leesburg | 1.76 | 2.17 | 2.51 | 2.08 | 3.22 |
| Sanford | 1.88 | 2.24 | 2.36 | 2.25 | 2.85 |
The forecast below is the anomaly, above or below average for each month. Add or subtract the forecast to the average to get the expected outcome for the month.
November
The El Niño pattern starts to materialize. The best chance for above-average moisture will be in North and Central Florida.
It will be warm in November for Central and South Florida.
December
The El Niño firehose is expected to settle in, sending rounds of rain through Florida. The severe weather threat is expected to ramp up.
Overall, above-normal temperatures will continue for much of the state. Cold fronts will send the chill from time to time.
January
A battle between the warm tropical airmass and the cold polar one sets up this month. Frequent storms are expected to move in off the Gulf, resulting in above-average precipitation for the entire state.
The tug of war allows for warm days followed by colder ones.
February
This looks to be the wettest and most active month of winter. Central and South Florida should become the focal point for the heaviest rain and strongest storms.
This is the best chance for temperatures to average out below normal.
The below-normal temperatures would largely come from cool afternoons rather than harsh overnight/morning freezes.
March
The moisture surge continues, but may abruptly shut off later in the month.
Warmer air should start to surge back in, allowing March to end up warmer than normal. South Florida may finish well above normal.
How this outlook was made
The outlook weighed heavily on strong El Niños of the past.
Analog, or similar years, used in this outlook are 1972/73, 1982/83, 1997/98, and 2015/2016.
For this upcoming winter, a warm blob of water in the North Pacific may be a wild card in this season’s forecast.
The sea surface temperature pattern there, known as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, is in its negative phase. Typically, when El Niño is present, it’s in its positive phase.
Oftentimes, this can counter the impacts of El Niño; however, with the potentially historic strength, it may have little effect on it.
The one thing the negative PDO can do is buckle the northern branch of the jet stream, polar jet, in the eastern half of the country. This will only enhance the storminess for Florida and is the reason for the likely large ups and downs in the temperature department rather than just a steady, cloudy and cool winter El Niño typically brings.
Long-range climate models were also considered.
Model forecasts show the wind shear anomaly to be maxed out through winter, enhancing the overall severe weather threat.
Now is a good time to download the FREE News 6 Weather app to stay updated on what could be a wild winter in Florida.
