ORLANDO, Fla. – Several times through the hurricane season, meteorologists from Colorado State University update their tropical activity forecasts.
The latest revision came early August and still calls for an “extremely active Atlantic hurricane season in 2024,″ increasing the numbers slightly compared to their preseason forecast.
Their official forecast stands at 23 named storms, 12 to reach hurricane strength, with six of those hurricanes intensifying to Category 3 strength or higher. These numbers do include hurricanes Beryl and Debby as well as tropical storms Alberto and Chris.
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According to CSU, “the updated August forecast takes newly-available data into consideration as the peak of the season approaches. While there is uncertainty with all seasonal outlooks, the forecast team has higher confidence than normal that this season will be extremely busy.”
The two big factors at play in the forecast include the presence of very warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures and lower-than-normal wind shear, all a result of a transitioning ENSO phase to La Niña.
“Even if La Niña conditions are not met, the CSU team anticipates cool ENSO neutral conditions, which when combined with the very warm Atlantic, would likely still favor a well above-normal Atlantic hurricane season,” CSU meteorologists said.
The recent report also includes the chances of major hurricanes — meaning, storms with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater — for the rest of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.
- 56% for the entire U.S. coastline (full season average from 1880–2020 is 43%).
- 30% for the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida peninsula (full season average from 1880–2020 is 21%).
- 38% for the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle westward to Brownsville (full season average from 1880–2020 is 27%).
- 61% for tracking through the Caribbean (full season average from 1880–2020 is 47%).
It is important to note that these forecasts are predictions. No matter how many storms end up developing this season, it only takes one storm to make it a memorable year. Take the time NOW to replenish supplies, take inventory and plan your preparations before a storm threatens.
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