| Location | 150 miles S of Kingston Jamaica |
| Wind | 45 mph |
| Heading | NNW at 9 mph |
| Pressure | 29.53 |
| Coordinates | 76.9W, 15.8N |
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Discussion
At 700 PM EST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was located by Air Force Reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 76.9 West. Rafael is now moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A more northwestward motion is expected to begin later tonight and forecast to continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move near Jamaica during the overnight period, be near or over the Cayman Islands late Tuesday, and approach Cuba on Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecasted and the system could become a hurricane on Tuesday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center.
The latest minimum central pressure recently measured by dropsonde data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).
Watches and Warnings
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for, * Cayman Islands
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for, * Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for, * Jamaica
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for, * Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, and Las Tunas * Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge * Dry Tortugas
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.system.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere in Cuba should closely monitor this system. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings will likely be required later tonight or early Tuesday.
For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
Land Hazards
Key messages for Tropical Storm Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands by Tuesday afternoon and are possible in western Cuba and the Isle of Youth on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Jamaica during the overnight into Tuesday morning and are possible in central Cuba, and in the lower and middle Florida Keys on Wednesday.
RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the Western Caribbean with the heaviest rainfall occurring over Jamaica and portions of Cuba through mid-week. Rainfall totals between 3 to 6 inches with locally up to 9 inches are expected. Flooding and mudslides could occur over portions of Jamaica and Cuba.
Heavy rainfall will spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of the Southeast United States by mid to late week.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf
STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in Jamaica tonight. Storm surge could raise water levels by 1-3 feet above normal tide levels in the Cayman Islands on Tuesday, and could raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth.
The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide,
Dry Tortugas, 1-3 ft Lower Florida Keys, 1-2 ft
SURF: Swells generated by the system are expected to affect much of the western Caribbean during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please consult products from your local weather office.