Ballot measures on abortion access could attract voters to polls in November who otherwise might sit out the election — and even a small number of additional voters could make a difference in close races for offices from the state legislature to president.
Scholars and ballot measure experts are divided on the impact ballot measures have previously had on candidate elections. But in the aftermath of the Supreme Court's 2022 Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization ruling, which ended the nationwide right to abortion, these measures are seen as ones that could sway results if any can.
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“2024 is a test in this post-Dobbs world of how this issue being on the ballot will impact candidates,” said Chris Melody Fields Figueredo, executive director of The Ballot Initiative Strategy Center, which helps progressive groups with the details of pursuing and campaigning for ballot measures. “It is really dependent on whether candidates are willing to run on those issues.”
Voters in nine states are considering measures to add the right to abortion to their state constitutions in the highest profile of many ballot measures.
One, Nebraska, also has a competing measure that would enshrine the current law, which outlaws most abortions after the first 12 weeks of pregnancy. Additionally, New York has an equal rights measure that would bar discrimination based on pregnancy outcomes, though it doesn't mention abortion by name.
If any ballot measures have major effects on candidate elections, it's expected to be those regarding abortion. But they're not alone on the ballot. There are more than 140 questions being posed in 41 states, including about marijuana legalization, immigration, election procedures, sports betting and minimum wage.
Since 2022, the position pushed by abortion rights advocates has prevailed in all seven statewide abortion-related ballot measures, including in conservative Kansas and Kentucky.
Dave Campbell, a political science professor at Notre Dame, said there could be some parallels this year to the 2004 election. That November, 11 states adopted bans on same-sex marriage and President George W. Bush, who opposed same-sex marriage, was reelected in a tight race. Republicans gained seats in both houses of Congress.
Scholars differ over whether the ballot measures — later supplanted by a Supreme Court decision to allow same-sex unions nationwide — were a major factor for Bush.
Studies found that overall voter turnout didn't seem to get a bigger boost in states where the measures were on the ballot. But Campbell and a co-author found that more white protestant evangelicals did vote in those states and that those additional voters heavily favored Bush — including in Ohio, where his narrow win was key to retaining his office.
Vice President Kamala Harris, who last week launched a nationwide bus tour to promote reproductive freedom, could get a similar boost in her run against former President Donald Trump, Campbell said.
Trump nominated the Supreme Court members who were crucial to overturning Roe and called it “a beautiful thing to watch” as states set their own restrictions. He also has said he would not support a national ban. His running mate, Ohio Sen. JD Vance, said Trump would veto such legislation if it landed on his desk.
Last week, Trump repeated that the Florida law banning abortion after the first six weeks of pregnancy is too restrictive, but said he would vote against a ballot measure that would make abortion legal until fetal viability.
Significant numbers of Republican voters have supported abortion rights, but most of the party's candidates are now abortion opponents.
“It’s pretty hard to cast a ballot in favor of an abortion rights initiative and turn around and vote for a Republican candidate,” Campbell said.
Kelly Hall, executive director of The Fairness Project, a nonpartisan group that supports progressive ballot measures, said ballot measures often get more votes than any candidates for office.
But she said there wasn’t much evidence until the abortion measures over the last two years that ballot questions would attract large numbers of voters who would otherwise not vote at all.
“For those candidates who hope that the election is more about abortion than other issues, sharing a ballot with one of these reproductive rights measures is a huge benefit,” she said.
If ballot measures drive voter enthusiasm and alter outcomes of candidate races, it’s most likely to happen in races that are tight anyway.
In a Montana race that could be crucial to determining whether Democrats keep control of the U.S. Senate, incumbent Jon Tester, a Democrat who supports abortion rights, is in a tight race against Republican Tim Sheehy, who has criticized the ballot measure.
Tester's campaign recently has released three new ads promoting abortion rights.
In New York, a judge last month declined to require the word “abortion” to appear in the ballot measure. Democrats were pushing for it to be included in a state where congressional races could be close.
There are also measures on the ballot in Nevada and Arizona, presidential battleground states where control of the state government is split between the parties.
Arizona State Sen. Eva Burch, a Democrat from Mesa, said abortion was a key to her victory in the competitive district two years ago and could be again this year.
Burch announced in a legislative floor speech earlier this year that she was getting an abortion because her pregnancy was no longer viable. Her speech came just before the Arizona Supreme Court ruled that a Civil War-era abortion ban could apply. The Legislature repealed the law before enforcement could begin.
“One of the reasons that it continues to be an important part of the conversation is because there’s so much ambiguity around abortion care in Arizona right now and people just aren’t really sure where we stand,” Burch said.
The campaign of her Republican opponent, Robert Scantlebury, declined to speak to The Associated Press about the ballot measure.
Arizona is also home to one the most competitive congressional districts in the nation, an area along the U.S-Mexico border where first-term Republican Rep. Juan Ciscomani faces a rematch with Democrat Kirsten Engel.
In a debate last week, Ciscomani, who immigrated from Mexico as a child, said immigration is the top issue. It too is the subject of a statewide ballot initiative.
He didn't respond to the AP's request for an interview.
Engel helped gather signatures to get the abortion question on the ballot. “So many voters practically grabbed those clipboards out of our hands to sign the initiative,” she said.
While polling shows support for legal abortion access, the issue is also mobilizing some anti-abortion voters.
Danise Rees, a 23-year-old senior at Arizona State University and vice president of the school's chapter of Students of Life, said she switched from Republican to independent after the Dobbs ruling because she was upset that some Republicans have moderated their stances. Still, she said she intends to vote for Trump this fall because he is more sympathetic to the anti-abortion movement.
"If the Democrats tomorrow decided that they were going to be pro-life completely and more so than the Republican candidates,” she said, "then I would vote Democrat."
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Associated Press reporter Sejal Govindarao and AP/Report for America Statehouse News Initiative corps member Gabriel Sandoval contributed from Phoenix. Report for America is a nonprofit national service program that places journalists in local newsrooms to report on undercovered issues.