We thought this would be a backloaded season, but this is getting ridiculous. We talked for some time now that there would be a final push activity to start November because of an MJO pulse entering the basin.
Chances are going up that we do get development by the weekend in the western Caribbean, but the question is where does it go?
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A faster-developing storm will have a tendency to lift northeast towards the Bahamas. A slower-developing storm will have a better chance to go west and get into the Gulf. Pictured below are the GFS and Euro ensembles, respectively.
Each of those lines represents a possible solution for the storm. Ensembles are the thing to look at at this stage of the game.
Beware of individual model runs being shared on social media. Until a storm develops they will be unreliable and bounce all over the place.
The end of those ensemble runs shared above go through November 7.
See you then!
Jonathan
There is a lot of noise out there when it comes to the weather. A lot of hype, a lot of clickbait etc. You have my word that you will never see any of those scare tactics from me and News 6. Seeing this myself makes my blood boil.
We’re going to talk about a lot of stuff (hopefully while everything remains out at sea), but we will do so with sound science and meteorology.
It is my hope to have a conversation about the weather this season and to my pass along everything I know so that you know what to look out for.
You can expect an e-mail from me every Monday (and as needed) during hurricane season. If it’s quiet, we’re going to talk about it. If there’s something going on out there, we’re definitely going to be talking about it. We also have a live tropics show that airs on our YouTube channel every Monday at 8p.m. and News 6+
Ways to stay connected this hurricane season
News 6+
If you live outside of Central Florida or don’t have cable, first of all thank you for finding the Tropics Watch newsletter!
Weather Wise
If you crave weather content, I have a show that airs Monday through Friday at 7 a.m. On News 6+ We get in-depth and hyper-local with the weather.
There is also a tropical update every morning at about 8:06 so you can see if anything is brewing.
Pinpoint Hurricane App
Even if you are outside of Central Florida download this app! This is the best hurricane app on the market and its FREE. As soon as the National Hurricane Center names something, you’re going to know about. It’s a great way to follow the season if you like doing that. Search WKMG in your app store and make sure you find the hurricane one.
YouTube
If you live in Central Florida subscribe to the WKMG/Clickorlando page.
If you love the weather whether you’re in Central Florida or not, subscribe to JustWeather!
Clickorlando.com/hurricane is also a great resource no matter where you live.
Alright. I have rambled on enough. Just wanted to make you aware of where you can find trustworthy and in-depth weather content this season.
One last thing. This is a two-way street. I/we are here for you. Any ideas? Like or hate something? Have any questions? Let me know. Shoot me an e-mail at jkegges@wkmg.com. Find me on facebook or twitter.
We’re in this together. We have families here too. You’re going to get the same info we give to them. Thank you for your trust. We don’t take that responsibility lightly.
Ok now I’m done.
Talk to you soon!
-Jonathan