ORLANDO, Fla. – The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Thursday issued its annual mid-season forecast ahead of the peak of hurricane season.
The administration is now calling for 14-20 named storms, with 6-10 of those storms becoming hurricanes and 3-5 becoming major hurricanes.
The update is slightly lower than the agency’s pre-season forecast issued in May. Cooler water sneaking into the main development region of the Atlantic is one of the reasons for the decreased forecast. Water temperature in this region is expected to be near normal. The season as a whole is expected to be normal to above normal.
To date there have been three named storms in the Atlantic basin.
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While the 2022 hurricane season has been quiet to date when compared to the last two seasons, the season is actually right on schedule. On average, through Aug. 4, the Atlantic sees three named storms.
It is important to note that pre-August storms do not foretell how the remainder of the season will behave. For instance, 2019 also started off relatively slow with the third named storm not forming until Aug. 20. The 2019 season concluded with 18 named storms including category 5 Hurricane Dorian.
Colorado State University also issued its mid-season forecast update Thursday. The University is now expecting 18 named storms, down from 20 in their July update.
These numbers include Alex, Bonnie and Colin which formed earlier in the season. Hurricane season ends Dec. 1.
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