ORLANDO, Fla. – The Eastern Pacific Basin has been extremely active of late, with three of the last five storms becoming a major hurricane.
Each of those major hurricanes underwent rapid intensification. That includes Hurricane Dora which crossed all three basins of the Pacific, having to be reclassified as a typhoon.
Now the Pacific Basin could produce another historic storm. Hurricane Hilary is a major Category 4 hurricane southwest of Baja California Peninsula.
The storm is expected to weaken significantly as it approaches Southern California as it crosses into much cooler water. While it is still unclear at this point if the storm will make an official landfall in California, tropical storm conditions are still possible.
This is the first time the National Hurricane Center has issued a watch for this region.
In addition to tropical storm force winds, significant flash flooding and tropical storm conditions will be likely Sunday for portions of Southern California and the Desert Southwest.
This amount of rain in this part of the world is extremely rare.
Today's High Risk issuance in our Excessive Rainfall Outlook is the first one on record (to at least 2010) east of the mountains and in the low deserts of southern California. Explore the ERO in more detail using our interactive web page here: https://t.co/cfgBoWziaI pic.twitter.com/cCgepmmCaQ
— NWS Weather Prediction Center (@NWSWPC) August 18, 2023
The last time a tropical system made an actual landfall in Southern California was in 1939. That storm came ashore as tropical storm near Los Angeles.
Impacts from tropical systems, let alone an official landfall, are rare. The much-cooler waters off the coast of California weaken storms lifting north from the warmer water south. The steering current typically keeps these storms away from the western U.S. as well.
A large dip in the jet stream is helping to pull Hilary north toward California.
The increased activity in the Pacific is expected during an El Niño season. The earth officially moved into an El Niño earlier this year.
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