ORLANDO, Fla. – As the weather is seemingly starting to shift to a cooler pattern, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its official Winter Outlook on Thursday.
For the first time in four years, El Niño will be the driving force to our winter seasonal changes.
According to the Climate Prediction Center, it will be a “strong” El Niño, with a 75-85% chance of sticking around through November-January. There is a three in 10 chance of a “historically strong” event that would rival 1997-98 and 2015-16.
With that being said, we could see a very different winter in Central Florida, compared to recent years.
During an El Niño winter event, a subtropical jet stream, a river of air in the upper atmosphere that drives weather systems across the county, is much more active. This acts as a route for fronts to track across the Pacific into California, then the Southern Plains and Deep South and eventually into Florida.
Precipitation
According to NOAA’s report, “From December through February, NOAA predicts wetter-than-average conditions are most likely in northern Alaska, some areas of the West from parts of California to the south-central Rockies, the southern Plains, Gulf Coast, Southeast and lower mid-Atlantic. With the greatest odds for drier-than-average conditions lingering for portions of the northern Rockies and central Great Lakes region, especially for Michigan and northern Ohio and Indiana.”
Temperatures
When it comes to temperatures, Florida falls under the category of “equal chances,” meaning the chances for above-average, below-average or near-average are all about the same.
The forecast calls for warmer-than-average temperatures across the northern half of the U.S and most of the western states. In the south-central Rockies to the southern Plains, it will be a near-normal winter season.
Click here to read more on what Central Floridians can expect this upcoming winter season, including the increased threat for severe weather.