ORLANDO, Fla. – Most of the Atlantic basin has enjoyed a nice pause to the season.
Invest 97L, a disturbance in the Caribbean, thankfully never materialized on its way to Central America, but it did bring flooding rain.
In the short-term, the Atlantic should take a nice break. After all, it is November.
One of the reasons, however, we are watching intently is the fact the Caribbean Sea remains juiced with ample fuel for tropical systems to work with.
That’s the area where upper-level dynamics appear to become favorable again by the middle and latter portion of November.
Rising motion is expected to move back into the Caribbean by the second and third week of November. Air needs to rise for thunderstorms to develop. The green on the map below highlights the anomaly for rising motion, which appears significant on the model forecast.
At the very least, thunderstorm activity looks to become prolific for northwestern South America and the western Caribbean. It remains to be seen if these storms will consolidate into a tropical system, but conditions will become favorable for development.
It becomes increasingly rare for a tropical system to impact the U.S. the deeper we get into November as cold fronts and high pressure tend to suppress storms.
Hurricane season officially runs through November. There are only two names left on the list, Vince and Whitney.
If all names are used up, a supplemental list of names will be used to complete the season.