A surface low-pressure system over the western Gulf is expected to move eastward toward the western Florida peninsula.
As this occurs, moisture levels in the atmosphere will gradually increase across southern and central Florida. Cloud cover will thicken through the night as moisture spreads downward.
While much of the evening should remain dry, there’s a growing chance of isolated to scattered showers moving in from the west overnight, potentially becoming more numerous toward sunrise.
Thunderstorms are not expected to be widespread due to limited instability, but a few isolated rumbles of thunder could occur before sunrise. Overnight temperatures will be mild, in the 60s, with humid conditions persisting.
During the daytime on Friday look for the low to move eastward. As it advances toward Florida it will result in mainly cloudy skies with a chance of scattered to widespread showers throughout the day.
Isolated lightning storms are possible, although I’m not looking for anything to go severe.
Developing breezy to gusty southeast-to-south winds are expected. While locally heavy rainfall is possible, flooding is not anticipated. The highest rainfall threat will be concentrated farther south across southern Florida.
Colder and drier mid-level air returns to the state on Saturday. A cold front will progress eastward, with warm surface temperatures anticipated ahead of it.
Scattered to numerous showers and isolated storms are likely in the morning. By midday into the afternoon, there’s a chance of convective redevelopment as surface instability increases.
Things on Saturday could go severe with some storms packing gusty winds and small hail. Breezy conditions are expected, with westerly gusts of 20-30 mph. Dry conditions are forecast for Saturday night, with temperatures ranging from 55 to 60 degrees
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