ORLANDO, Fla. – AccuWeather on Wednesday released its 2024 hurricane season outlook. Meteorologists there are predicting an “explosive 2024 hurricane season.”
Their forecast also leaves open the possibility to beat the record for named storms in a season. The current record is 30 set back in 2020.
Earlier in March, the Climate Prediction Center increased odds that a La Niña develops for the summer. La Niña tends to increase hurricane activity in the Atlantic.
Combined with record-warm sea surface temperature across parts of the basin, the ingredients are there for an extremely active 2024 hurricane season.
Limiting factors to an ‘explosive’ season
More robust tropical waves moving off Africa will be expected this upcoming season. The mechanism that produces these waves, however, also tends to transport dry, dusty air from the Sahara Desert into the development zone of the Atlantic Ocean.
Dry, dusty air suppresses tropical development.
While La Niña typically reduces overall wind shear across the basin, larger-than-normal temperature temperature differences between the tropics and subtropics could induce more shear north of the Caribbean.
Wind shear helps to rip storms apart.
Higher impact tracks
With the shift to La Niña from a strong El Niño in 2023, there is a higher probably for the season to be more impactful. With few exceptions last season, Idalia etc., most of the storms remained out to sea.
There is a distinct change in where storms tend to track, however, in a La Niña season that directly follows a strong El Niño.
The Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico is expected to be much more active than it was in 2023.
With that said, it is not a time to let scary headlines send you into a panic.
While there is high potential for the 2024 hurricane season to be extremely active, it is impossible to know where storms will track months in advance.
‘They always say that’
While it’s true that they (meteorologists) have predicted above-average in active seasons of late, the reality is that those predictions have come to fruition. The last below-normal hurricane season in the Atlantic basin was 2013.
It’s important to note that just because your area didn’t get hit, doesn’t mean it wasn’t an active year. Even in a quiet year, it only takes one storm and its always best to be prepared no matter what the seasonal outlook is.
Colorado State University, one of the most respected seasonal forecast entities, is expected to release its prediction on April 4. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center will release their outlook in late May.
Hurricane season officially begins June 1.
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