ORLANDO, Fl. – Since 1851, tropical activity usually increases in August, September, and early October.
In August, tropical systems usually start in the Atlantic Basin but can also form in the Gulf of Mexico, known as homegrown storms. These storms develop from the northern Gulf of Mexico to the southern Atlantic coast.
The map below shows areas in the central Atlantic, color-coded from pink to red, orange, and yellow, indicating where named storms are most likely to develop, from “most likely” to “possible.”
Saharan dust greatly affects the formation of tropical systems. It typically travels across the Atlantic and Caribbean from May to July, but can occur year-round.
By August, the dust decreases, and more easterly waves usually start moving off the African coast into the Atlantic Basin.
So far this season, we’ve had two tropical storms and one major hurricane.
The current climate pattern is La Niña, which means sea surface temperatures are cooler than usual in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. La Niña typically leads to wetter conditions in Australia and Indonesia, and drier conditions in the central and southern United States.
For the Atlantic hurricane season, La Niña usually results in more hurricanes. It does this by reducing wind shear, which helps storms develop and grow.
It also warms sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic, providing more energy for hurricanes.
This combination generally increases tropical cyclone activity. Additionally, La Niña can change hurricane paths, affecting where storms might hit, including the U.S. East Coast and the Caribbean.