ORLANDO, Fla. – This area, designated as Tropical Depression 4, is forecast to emerge into the warm waters of the Florida Straits early Saturday. The latest information from the National Hurricane Center shows TD4 developing into a depression early Saturday morning.
As it continues to move over open waters, Tropical Storm Debby is expected to form as early as Saturday evening.
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As of Friday afternoon, most tropical computer models agree that the storm will leave Cuba, travel north into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and make a right turn into Florida by Sunday or Monday. Exactly when the right turn will happen is where models become a bit more uncertain.
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Scenario #1: A weaker high over the Atlantic will give a bit more space for the system to ride closer to the Gulf coast of Florida, keeping the area a bit weaker as it interacts with land.
Scenario #2: A stronger high will nudge the system further into the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico, allowing a bit more space and time to develop into a stronger storm with a later turn to Florida.
TIMING:
Local model runs show tropical rain bands feeding into Central Florida by Saturday afternoon/evening across southern counties, with northern counties seeing a little less.
The surge of moisture is expected to arrive by Sunday with bands of squally gusty downpours streaming in starting Sunday morning and heavier rain by the afternoon.
The earliest band of rain is expected early Sunday around 6 a.m. and more rain comes in at 8 a.m. Sunday with squall-like weather.
LOCAL IMPACTS:
Regardless of exact track and intensity, Central Florida should prepare for a tropical system to be nearby between Sunday and Tuesday with rainfall being the biggest threat.
The Weather Prediction Center has outlined east Central Florida in a Slight Risk (Level 2/5) on Sunday, with the potential for flash flooding under heavier rain bands. The highest potential for showers and storms will be Sunday and Monday (80-90%), with coverage at 40-50% on Saturday.
Main storm hazards on Sunday through Monday will continue to be occasional to frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds up to 40-55 mph, and locally heavy rainfall of 5-8+ inches, but higher amounts are likely.
The News 6 Pinpoint Weather Team will continue to update the local timeline and impacts with this tropical system as the forecast models come into better agreement.
Make sure to remain updated and informed through the weekend here on ClickOrlando.com, News6+ and on air.
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