ORLANDO, Fla. – Explosive, hyperactive, busy.
Those were some of the words used to describe the 2024 hurricane season before it started.
Prior to the season, however, we highlighted some limiting factors that could make the season less-“explosive” than what was forecast.
While we may be running behind schedule from some of the preseason forecasts, we are actually a little ahead of schedule compared to “normal.”
Most of the ACE, accumulated cyclone energy, was generated by major hurricane Beryl that reached category 5 status. ACE is a metric that measures intensity and longevity of tropical storms and hurricanes.
The higher the number, the more intense the season.
So, where are the storms?
You would think with the extremely active forecasts that we would have seen more storms by now, right?
Thankfully we haven’t. However, even with an extremely primed Atlantic basin, something seems to be “holding back” the season so far.
One of the reasons is likely due to how far north the tropical waves are currently rolling off of Africa.
There is still a lot of dry, dusty air in this region and the atmospheric conditions aren’t as favorable.
The Inter-tropical Convergence Zone, or ITCZ, has been displaced farther north than where it typically resides.
The ITCZ is an area where convergence between northeast winds from the northern hemisphere and southeast winds from the southern hemisphere occurs.
This helps to fire up clouds and thunderstorms that can eventually become tropical waves.
Model guidance suggests that this feature could trend south through September to align with the peak of hurricane season.
In early August, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration doubled down on their pre-season forecast, just shaving off one storm from the high end of their range.
The Climate Prediction Center has given a high chance for tropical development during the first week of September.
The peak of hurricane season is Sept. 10 and runs through November.