ORLANDO, Fla. – The peak of hurricane season arrives next week (Sept. 10), and the National Hurricane Center continues to monitor four tropical features. Confidence has grown some for an area of disturbed weather expected to wander into the southwest Gulf of Mexico where it could try to further organize. The three others face diminishing odds.
Here’s what the NHC said Friday afternoon about the four areas of interest, with the potential Gulf system seeing a 40% chance of development:
Northwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL90): Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system and weak frontal boundary over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico remain disorganized. The low is expected to be absorbed by the front and lose definition by tonight or on Saturday, and therefore tropical cyclone development is not expected. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is expected to continue and possibly cause flash flooding across portions of the northern Gulf Coast during the next day or so. Additional information on this system can be found in products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office and High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. Formation chance through 48 hours, low, near 0 percent. Formation chance through 7 days, low, near 0 percent.
Northwestern Atlantic (AL99): An intensifying low pressure system located several hundred miles east of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast continues to take on a non-tropical structure and is now producing winds to storm force. Subtropical development of this system is not expected while it moves north-northeastward at 15 to 20 mph offshore the northeastern United States toward Atlantic Canada. Additional information on this system, including storm warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. Formation chance through 48 hours, low, near 0 percent. Formation chance through 7 days, low, near 0 percent.
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Southwestern Gulf of Mexico: A tropical wave located over Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The wave is forecast to move into the Bay of Campeche on Saturday, where it could then begin to interact with a frontal boundary. A tropical depression could form during the early or middle part of next week while the system moves slowly northwestward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 20 percent. Formation chance through 7 days, medium, 40 percent.
Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic: An elongated trough of low pressure over the eastern tropical Atlantic is producing minimal shower and thunderstorm activity. Development, if any, should be slow to occur while the disturbance meanders through the early part of next week and then begins to move west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic during the middle to latter part of next week. Formation chance through 48 hours, low, near 0 percent. Formation chance through 7 days, low, 10 percent.
The next named storm will be called Francine.
Hurricane season runs through November.