With the official start of hurricane season just days away, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its annual outlook Tuesday.
NOAA is predicting an “above normal” season and forecasting 14-21 named storms in 2022. Of those, six to 10 could be hurricanes, including three to six possible major hurricanes, meaning category 3 or higher.
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“NOAA is predicting an above normal 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, which would make this year the seventh consecutive above normal season,” NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad said.
Forecasters with the NOAA said this year is expected to be more active due to the following factors:
- Warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea
- Weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds
- Enhanced west African monsoon
Colorado State University released its first long-range forecast in April, predicting Florida could be a hurricane hotspot compared to the rest of the coastal states.
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For 2022, CSU forecasters are calling for another above-average Atlantic hurricane season, a trend we have seen over the last four decades. Their numbers show 19 named storms, with nine of them becoming hurricanes and four gaining major hurricane strength.
Factoring in a weaker La Niña pattern and warmer than average water temperatures, scientists at CSU anticipate “an above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean.”
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