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Here is why Milton is forecast to drop below Category 5 intensity

Wind field expected to expand prior to landfall

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ORLANDO, Fla. – The term “weaken” is relative, and it is a dangerous word in the evolving situation with Hurricane Milton.

Even with Milton expected to weaken slightly from its peak intensity, it will still likely rank near the top of most destructive hurricanes to ever impact Central Florida. Think Charley, Irma, Ian and — going back to the 1960s — Donna.

While technically from a wind speed perspective, Milton will be knocked down a few miles per hour, impacts to Central Florida will be significant.

The same dip in the jetstream that is helping to guide Milton east through the Gulf of Mexico will help to induce some wind shear. It is still unclear as to how much the wind shear will impact the storm itself.

Upper level pattern

As Milton interacts with the jetsream, the wind field is expected to expand. While the winds that are tightly packed around the center may decrease, the storm will grow in size, spreading out hurricane-force winds much farther from the center.

Dry air will also try and infiltrate the southern side of the storm, which may help to weaken Milton slightly. The dry air, however, may also help to increase the severe weather threat even more.


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