As we approach the mid-month mark of November, we are still looking at the tropics.
There is an area of interest highlighted by the National Hurricane Center that has an 80% chance of development over the next seven days. The next named storm would be Sara after Rafael dissipated in the central Gulf of Mexico before making any type of landfall.
Conditions are rather favorable in the Caribbean, especially given the time of year.
We are still within the appropriate “phasing” for large-scale forcing to help support tropical development. The water temperatures both at and below the surface of the sea are still more than capable of developing a tropical cyclone.
The question on everyone’s mind is this: Where does it go if and when it develops?
In reality, though, perhaps the question should be worded “when it forms.”
The Caribbean Sea is likely at its most favorable for tropical activity despite it being the month of November. We are much more familiar with saying goodbye to the tropical basin at this point on the calendar, but ingredients are ripe for a feature to work its way into the Caribbean and start to spin.
There are a number of different mechanisms steering this feature, and Floridians should at least be mindful that there could be something to our south.
Our first of multiple fronts expected to dip through our area this upcoming weekend is what is likely to help stir the pot down south and allow the feature to develop some more spin.
From there, high pressure builds in post frontal passage. This will start to encourage a bit of a jog toward the north and west before potentially stalling as the high pressure over the southeast/western Atlantic weakens.
Then its time for the next frontal system, a bit stronger of a surge of cooler air to come down and attempt to pick it up from its current position.
That’s when things get tricky.
Timing and the strength of our features over the United States will dictate heavily what occurs to Florida’s south. Despite sounding rather candid, if things align just right, as some model data suggests, this would likely be Florida’s next storm.
However, this is a forecast that would involve us upwards of nearly 10 days from now.
Pressure systems, cold fronts and especially tropical cyclones can do a lot within that timeframe, so this is subject to some change.
Above, we have some general key takeaways you should be aware of as we continue to pinpoint what this tropical disturbance could do.
We do want to emphasize given the time of year, the pattern in place and the confidence in model guidance, this is a feature that Florida and the remainder of the Southeast should be mindful of as we go through the next few days together.
Hurricane season officially ends Dec. 1.
