I use the term bust loosely. What’s going on, guys?! Meteorologist Jonathan Kegges back with you for another edition of Tropics Watch. I am also talking about the number of storms versus impacts. Beryl and Debby were obviously both extremely impactful hurricanes. Ernesto even brought flooding to Puerto Rico.
In my opinion the seasonal forecasts this year have given us a false sense of when these storms typically develop. Even in hyperactive years, there are oftentimes lulls in the action. July is typically a quiet period in the Atlantic. That’s when the calls for a ‘busted season’ really started getting loud.
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We did talk prior to the season, however, on some of the factors that could prevent a very active season. Some of those are likely coming into play.
Just two weeks ago, however the NHC doubled down on their most active pre-season forecast ever.
We are likely running a little behind schedule in terms of that forecast, but are running a little ahead in terms of a ‘normal’ hurricane season.
The environment is extremely conducive to supporting storms, but they haven’t been developing as expected (Good thing). Here are some of the reasons.
To date we are through the same number of storms as the 2004 season. That season saw 10 more storms develop, four of those becoming major. The European forecast show 9 more storms developing from September on...so it’s plausible we get to around 15 storms.
If the reason highlighted above (click here) is responsible for the lack of activity, peak season could extended later than a traditional hurricane season.
There’s unfortunately still a lot of time to make up ground in the storm count.
There is a lot of noise out there when it comes to the weather. A lot of hype, a lot of clickbait etc. You have my word that you will never see any of those scare tactics from me and News 6. Seeing this myself makes my blood boil.
We’re going to talk about a lot of stuff (hopefully while everything remains out at sea), but we will do so with sound science and meteorology.
It is my hope to have a conversation about the weather this season and to my pass along everything I know so that you know what to look out for.
You can expect an e-mail from me every Monday (and as needed) during hurricane season. If it’s quiet, we’re going to talk about it. If there’s something going on out there, we’re definitely going to be talking about it. We also have a live tropics show that airs on our YouTube channel every Monday at 11 a.m.
If you’re in Central Florida tune into our Hurricane Special airing June 3rd at 8 p.m. on WKMG News 6. We will break down what we are seeing and talk about ways to keep your family safe.
Ways to stay connected this hurricane season
News 6+
If you live outside of Central Florida or don’t have cable, first of all thank you for finding the Tropics Watch newsletter! You can also watch the special on June 3rd at 8 p.m. by downloading the FREE News 6+ app! You can watch all of the newscasts on here as well. You can download that on your smart T.V. or other streaming devices.
Weather Wise
If you crave weather content, I have a show that airs Monday through Friday at 8 a.m. On News 6 Plus. We get in-depth and hyper-local with the weather.
There is also a tropical update every morning at about 8:06 so you can see if anything is brewing.
Pinpoint Hurricane App
Even if you are outside of Central Florida download this app! This is the best hurricane app on the market and its FREE. As soon as the National Hurricane Center names something, you’re going to know about. It’s a great way to follow the season if you like doing that. Search WKMG in your app store and make sure you find the hurricane one.
YouTube
If you live in Central Florida subscribe to the WKMG/Clickorlando page.
If you love the weather whether you’re in Central Florida or not, subscribe to JustWeather!
Clickorlando.com/hurricane is also a great resource no matter where you live.
Alright. I have rambled on enough. Just wanted to make you aware of where you can find trustworthy and in-depth weather content this season.
One last thing. This is a two-way street. I/we are here for you. Any ideas? Like or hate something? Have any questions? Let me know. Shoot me an e-mail at jkegges@wkmg.com. Find me on facebook or twitter.
We’re in this together. We have families here too. You’re going to get the same info we give to them. Thank you for your trust. We don’t take that responsibility lightly.
Ok now I’m done.
Talk to you soon!
-Jonathan