Disturbance Forecast To Strengthen Over The Next Few Days

Discussion

At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 82.0 West. The system is moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h). A northwestward motion is expected on Tuesday and Tuesday night, followed by a faster northward or north-northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of the system is forecast to move across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the system is forecast to become a hurricane on Wednesday and continue strengthening as it moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours, high, 90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days, high, 90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

Watches and Warnings

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Rio Lagartos to Tulum, and a Hurricane Watch from Cabo Catoche to Tulum.

The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Isle of Youth, Artemisa, and Pinar del Rio, and a Hurricane Watch for Pinar del Rio.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for, * Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico * Cuban province of Pinar del Rio

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for, * Rio Lagartos to Tulum, Mexico * Cuban provinces of Artemisa, and Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Land Hazards

Key Messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba and the Cayman Islands with isolated totals around 12 inches. Over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected with isolated totals over 6 inches. This rainfall brings a risk of flash and urban flooding and minor river flooding.

Heavy rainfall will spread into the Southeast U.S. Starting on Wednesday and continuing through Friday, bringing a risk of flash and river flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above ground level in areas of onshore winds within the warning area along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch areas by early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas beginning on Tuesday.